FAQ

The Win Rate is the percentage of resolved signals that moved in the predicted direction by more than 0.5%. It is calculated as: Win Rate = Winners / (Winners + Losers) × 100. Neutral signals (price moved less than 0.5%) are excluded from the win rate calculation since they fall within normal bid-ask spread noise.

ROT continuously scans popular options and trading subreddits (r/wallstreetbets, r/options, r/stocks, r/investing, and others). Each post is analyzed by a credibility scorer that extracts the ticker, stance (bullish/bearish/mixed), confidence level, strategy type, and event data. Signals are deduplicated so the same post+ticker combination only counts once.

The stance (bullish, bearish, or mixed) comes from natural language analysis of the Reddit post. Keywords, context, and sentiment indicators determine whether the author is recommending a long position (bullish), short position (bearish), or is presenting both sides (mixed). The confidence score (0-100%) reflects how strongly the post commits to a directional thesis.

When a signal is created, ROT records the current market price of the underlying ticker. A background price checker then captures the price at four intervals: 1 hour, 4 hours, 1 day, and 1 week after the signal. These snapshots allow us to evaluate how the trade idea performed over time.

ROT uses the best available price snapshot in priority order: 1-day > 4-hour > 1-hour. This means if the 1-day price is available, that's used. If not (e.g., the signal is less than 24 hours old), the 4-hour price is used, and so on. This ensures that newer signals aren't judged too early while older signals get a fair evaluation window.

A 0.5% minimum movement threshold filters out noise. If the price moves less than 0.5% in either direction, the signal is classified as neutral rather than a win or loss. This exists because bid-ask spreads, minor fluctuations, and market noise can create small price movements that don't represent a meaningful directional outcome. Neutral signals are tracked but excluded from the win rate percentage.

Win/loss is determined relative to the signal's stance:

• Bullish signals: A win if the price went up by more than 0.5%
• Bearish signals: A win if the price went down by more than 0.5%

This means a bearish signal on a stock that dropped 3% is scored as a win, not a loss. The system correctly interprets the author's intended trade direction.

The dashboard breaks down win rate by confidence tiers to show whether higher-confidence signals actually perform better:

• <30% — Low confidence (speculative, vague thesis)
• 30-50% — Moderate confidence
• 50-70% — High confidence (clear thesis with supporting data)
• 70%+ — Very high confidence (strong conviction with catalysts)

A bucket needs at least 3 decided signals before a win rate is displayed, to avoid misleading statistics from tiny sample sizes.

Signal data is retained for 14 days to keep storage costs low. However, before any old signals are deleted, the system takes a win-rate snapshot — recording the total winners, losers, and neutral counts for the signals about to be purged. These snapshots are stored permanently in a separate table and are automatically merged with live signal data when the dashboard calculates your win rate. This means the win/loss record persists indefinitely even though the raw signal data is cycled out every two weeks.

Retaining every signal forever would significantly increase database and hosting costs, which would drive up subscription prices. The 14-day window provides enough time for all price checkpoints (1h, 4h, 1d, 1w) to be recorded and for outcomes to be fully resolved. Before deletion, the outcomes are permanently snapshotted so no win/loss data is ever lost. Users who want to keep the raw signal data can export it via CSV or the API at any time.

A tradeable signal is one with a confidence score of 50% or higher. These represent posts where the author has a clear directional thesis with meaningful conviction. Signals below 50% confidence are still tracked and included in statistics, but the 'Tradeable' count on the dashboard highlights the higher-quality subset.

The Signal Map plots each signal on two axes:

• X-axis (Confidence %): How confident the signal's thesis is (0-100%)
• Y-axis (Trend Score): How much community traction/buzz the ticker has

The quadrants help identify signal quality:

• Top-Right: Hot & Confident — high conviction + trending
• Top-Left: Trending, Uncertain — buzzing but weak thesis
• Bottom-Right: Confident, Quiet — strong thesis, low buzz
• Bottom-Left: Weak Signals — low confidence, low traction

No. ROT is a signal intelligence tool, not a financial advisor. It aggregates and analyzes public Reddit discussions to surface trading sentiment and ideas. The win rate and performance metrics are statistical measures of how Reddit-sourced signals have historically performed. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Yes. Pro and higher tier subscribers can export signal data via CSV or the API. The export includes the raw signal data, price snapshots, and performance outcomes for all signals within your plan's data retention window. The permanent win-rate snapshots ensure your historical win/loss totals remain accurate in the dashboard even after the raw data is cycled out.